Title
Predicting daily trends in the Lima stock exchange General Index Using Economic Indicators and Financial News Sentiments
Date Issued
01 January 2022
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
conference paper
Publisher(s)
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Abstract
Predicting the future trend of the Lima Stock Exchange market is challenging because of its high volatility, transaction costs, and illiquidity. In this work, we investigate machine learning models able to use technical indicators, economic variables, and financial news sentiments to forecast the daily return trend of the S&P/BVL Peru General Index. To the best of our knowledge, no other published S&P/BVL predicting tool considered these joint sources of information as relevant input features. To do so, fifteen economic indicators relevant to the local market and sentiment-tagged financial news headlines were used as extra input features for multiple machine learning classification models and feature selection methods. In addition, the performance of the static learning approach (the only one used for this particular problem so far) was compared against an online learning approach, which could dynamically better adapt to such a volatile, emergent market. The results showed an increase in performance when using the economic variables and news sentiment in comparison to existing predicting tools of the local market. When comparing both learning approaches, online learning yielded better predictive accuracy than its static counterpart. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort to include all these novel features for predicting trends in the Lima Stock Exchange.
Start page
34
End page
49
Volume
1577 CCIS
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias de la información Economía, Negocios
Publication version
Version of Record
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85128974147
Source
Communications in Computer and Information Science
ISSN of the container
1865-0929
ISBN of the container
978-303104446-5
Conference
8th Annual International Conference on Information Management and Big Data, SIMBig 2021
Sponsor(s)
Acknowledgment. The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support by Pontifical Catholic University of Peru (CAP program, project ID 735).
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus