Title
Application of a short memory model with random level shifts to the volatility of Latin American stock market returns
Date Issued
01 November 2015
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
Abstract
Empirical research indicates that the volatility of stock return time series has long memory. However, it has been demonstrated that short memory processes contaminated by random level shifts can often be confused with long memory, a feature often referred to as spurious long memory. This paper represents an empirical study of the random level shift (RLS) model for the volatility of daily stock return data for five Latin American countries. This model consists of the sum of a short term memory component and a level shift component that is governed by a Bernoulli process with a shift probability α. The results suggest that level shifts in the volatility of daily stock return data are infrequent but when taken into account, the long memory characteristic and GARCH ef fects disappear. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise is also provided.
Start page
185
End page
211
Volume
52
Issue
2
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Economía Econometría
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84957550105
Source
Latin American Journal of Economics
ISSN of the container
07190425
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus