Title
Method for the Analysis of Health Personnel Availability in a Pandemic Crisis Scenario through Monte Carlo Simulation
Date Issued
01 August 2022
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Saenz Arenas, Esther Rosa
Flores Castañeda R.O.
Herrera L.
Publisher(s)
MDPI
Abstract
During pandemic times, difficulties and problems related to the health sector are evident as the number of patients coming to health centers is higher compared to normal situations. This increase in the number of patients is typical of the pandemic, due to the high level of contagion in the population. Health personnel have a higher risk of infection, due to their sharing the work of caring for positive patients, so the infection rate is much higher. Hence, it remains necessary to understand the behavior of infection of health personnel, in order to be prepared to deal with the care of patients. Accordingly, in this research, we present a method to estimate different scenarios of infection and assess the probability of occurrence, so we can estimate the infection rate of health personnel. We present a simulation of 21 possible scenarios with 100 workers and a minimum of 80% needed to guarantee patient care. The results show that it is more likely that a 50% contagion scenario will occur, with an acceptable probability of 20%.
Volume
12
Issue
16
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Estadísticas, Probabilidad
Enfermedades infecciosas
Subjects
Publication version
Version of Record
License condition
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85136581743
Source
Applied Sciences (Switzerland)
ISSN of the container
20763417
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Universidad Privada Peruano Alemana
Scopus