Title
Predictive analysis for calculating the valuation of the affiliated fund of a private pension system using machine learning techniques and tools
Date Issued
01 January 2019
Access level
open access
Resource Type
conference paper
Author(s)
Publisher(s)
Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions
Abstract
This paper proposes a model for the analysis of the prediction of the accumulated fund for affiliates based on an area of study such as machine learning. The model allows to predict the pension fund of an affiliate in the private pension system by means of a web solution. In this sense, people will have, information and an adequate tool that allow them to have an oversight of the valuation of their funds throughout the years until retirement. In Peru, the decree of law 1990 states that the age for retirement is 65 years old, although there is also the option for early retirement. The proposed model consists of data analytics usage based on the modeling of machine learning algorithms through cloud platforms. The model structure includes four layers: transformation of the affiliate's data, security and privacy of personal data, obtaining and managing data, and finally, the life cycle of data applied to analytics. The model emphasizes data analytics concepts where large amounts of data are examined that lead to conclusions for better decision making. In doing this, the machine learning technique "boosted decision tree" is used due to the proximity of this technique applied in the financial forecast. The model was validated with a Pension Fund Administrator (AFP) in Lima (Peru) and the results obtained focused on the use of improved decision tree regression with a coefficient of determination of 99.997% and an average square error of 0.00650%. The coefficient of determination is an indicator of the quality of the model to predict results while the quadratic error quantifies the percentage of error among the set of results obtained under the boosted decision tree regression model.
Volume
2019-July
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Negocios, Administración
Sistemas de automatización, Sistemas de control
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85073625664
ISBN
9780999344361
ISSN of the container
24146390
ISBN of the container
978-099934436-1
Conference
Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus