This paper presents a methodology to estimate photovoltaic (PV) market potential in subareas along the time. The proposed methodology takes into account technical and economic constraints to determine the PV market potential. In the estimation is considered the market adhesion degree for investing in PV system. This methodology is applied to a medium-sized city in Brazil by using historical data of PV systems installations from 2013 to 2018 as a way to adjust the proposed model. One of the results are thematic maps that show the PV market potential by subareas in the planning horizon of study. Furthermore, two tariffs schemes are considered in the study of scenarios to observe changes in the estimated values of potential due to the application of other incentive program. These results provide useful information for the planning of distribution system considering the expansion of PV systems and the energy quantity that users will stop consuming from the distribution network.