Title
Are official GDP growth forecasts for Latin American and Caribbean countries downward biased?
Other title
¿Están las proyecciones oficiales del PBI de los países de América Latina y El Caribe sesgadas hacia abajo?
Date Issued
01 September 2017
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Pontifical Catholic University of Peru
Publisher(s)
Asociacion Cuadernos de Economia
Abstract
This article presents a comparative analysis of GDP growth forecasts for 19 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, reported by the IMF and ECLAC for the period 2003–2013. Contradicting the general result of the literature that asserts that economic predictions of official organizations tend to be optimistic, our results show that during that period, one year-ahead IMF and ECLAC GDP growth forecasts were downward biased. Furthermore, the analysis of usual goodness of fit measures and accuracy tests show that ECLAC's forecasts performed relatively better than that of the IMF during the period. Another interesting result is that no evidence was found regarding the influence of political type incentives on the bias of GDP forecasts as suggested by some authors. Instead, the results show that downward bias in projections has been strongly influenced by the underestimation of the impact of international economic factors, particularly the drastic increase in commodity export prices, on GDP growth of LAC economies.
Start page
236
End page
246
Volume
40
Issue
114
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Economía, Negocios
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85008230324
Source
Cuadernos de Economia
ISSN of the container
02100266
DOI of the container
10.1016/j.cesjef.2016.10.001
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus