Title
Estimation of Peru’s sovereign yield curve: the role of macroeconomic and latent factors
Date Issued
02 August 2019
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
Emerald Group Publishing Ltd.
Abstract
Purpose: Following Ang and Piazzesi’s (2003) study, the authors use an affine term structure model to study the relevance of macroeconomic (domestic and foreign) factors for Peru’s sovereign yield curve in the period from November 2005 to December 2015. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach: Risk premia are modeled as time-varying and depend on both observable and unobservable factors; and the authors estimate a vector autoregressive model considering no-arbitrage assumptions. Findings: The authors find evidence that macro factors help to improve the fit of the model and explain a substantial amount of variation in bond yields. However, their influence is very sensitive to the specification model. Variance decompositions show that macro factors explain a significant share of the movements at the short and middle segments of the yield curve (up to 50 percent), while unobservable factors are the main drivers for most of the movements at the long end of the yield curve (up to 80 percent). Furthermore, the authors find that international markets are relevant for the determination of the risk premium in the short term. Higher uncertainty in international markets increases bond yields, although this effect vanishes quickly. Finally, the authors find that no-arbitrage restrictions with the incorporation of macro factors improve forecasts. Originality/value: To the authors’ knowledge this is the first application of this type of models using data from an emerging country such as Peru.
Start page
533
End page
563
Volume
46
Issue
3
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Econometría Economía
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85069787201
Source
Journal of Economic Studies
ISSN of the container
01443585
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus