Title
Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems
Date Issued
01 November 2021
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Tittensor D.P.
Novaglio C.
Harrison C.S.
Heneghan R.F.
Barrier N.
Bianchi D.
Bopp L.
Bryndum-Buchholz A.
Britten G.L.
Büchner M.
Cheung W.W.L.
Christensen V.
Coll M.
Dunne J.P.
Eddy T.D.
Everett J.D.
Fernandes-Salvador J.A.
Fulton E.A.
Galbraith E.D.
Gascuel D.
Guiet J.
John J.G.
Link J.S.
Lotze H.K.
Maury O.
Palacios-Abrantes J.
Petrik C.M.
du Pontavice H.
Rault J.
Richardson A.J.
Shannon L.
Shin Y.J.
Steenbeek J.
Stock C.A.
Blanchard J.L.
University of Cape Town
Publisher(s)
Nature Research
Abstract
Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
Start page
973
End page
981
Volume
11
Issue
11
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Investigación climática
Biología marina, Biología de agua dulce, Limnología
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85117961960
Source
Nature Climate Change
ISSN of the container
1758678X
Sponsor(s)
We thank ISIMIP for assistance with processing ESM inputs and outputs and the ESM community for enabling these impact analyses. This work was supported by the Jarislowsky Foundation (D.P.T.), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Discovery Grant programme (D.P.T., H.K.L., T.D.E., W.W.L.C., J.P.-A. and V.C.); Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Projects DP170104240 (J.L.B. and C.N.), DP190102293 (J.L.B., C.N., A.J.R., J.D.E. and D.P.T.) and DP150102656 (J.D.E.); the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements 817578 (TRIATLAS) (M.C., J.S., L.S., O.M., L.B., Y.-J.S., N.B. and J.R.), 869300 (FutureMARES) (J.A.F.-S.,Y.-J.S. and M.C.) and 862428 (MISSION ATLANTIC (J.A.F.-S, Y.-J.S. and M.C.); the Spanish National Project ProOceans (PID2020-118097RB-I00) (M.C. and J.S.); the Open Philanthropy Project (C.S.H.); the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) One Ocean Hub (NE/S008950/1) (K.O.-C. and L.S.); the Simons Foundation (nos. 54993, 645921) (G.L.B.); the Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme (SOMBEE project, ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01) (Y.-J.S. and N.B.); the MEOPAR Postdoctoral Fellowship Award 2020–2021 and the Ocean Frontier Institute (Module G) (A.B.-B.); the French ANR project CIGOEF (grant ANR-17-CE32-0008-01) (O.M., L.B. and J.R.); the California Ocean Protection Council Grant C0100400, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) allocation TG-OCE170017 (D.B. and J.G.); the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association (NA20OAR4310441, NA20OAR4310442) (C.M.P.). M.C. acknowledges the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S) to the Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC). ZooMSS was run using the computational cluster Katana, supported by Research Technology Services at UNSW Sydney; O.M., N.B. and J.R. acknowledge the Pôle de Calcul et de Données Marines (PCDM) for providing DATARMOR storage and computational resources; W.W.L.C. and J.P.-A. acknowledge advanced computing support from Compute Canada.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus