Title
OASIS +: leveraging machine learning to improve the prognostic accuracy of OASIS severity score for predicting in-hospital mortality
Date Issued
01 December 2021
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
EL-Manzalawy Y.
Abbas M.
Hoaglund I.
Morland T.B.
Haggerty C.M.
Hall E.S.
Fornwalt B.K.
Geisinger
Publisher(s)
BioMed Central Ltd
Abstract
Background: Severity scores assess the acuity of critical illness by penalizing for the deviation of physiologic measurements from normal and aggregating these penalties (also called “weights” or “subscores”) into a final score (or probability) for quantifying the severity of critical illness (or the likelihood of in-hospital mortality). Although these simple additive models are human readable and interpretable, their predictive performance needs to be further improved. Methods: We present OASIS +, a variant of the Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) in which an ensemble of 200 decision trees is used to predict in-hospital mortality based on the 10 same clinical variables in OASIS. Results: Using a test set of 9566 admissions extracted from the MIMIC-III database, we show that OASIS + outperforms nine previously developed severity scoring methods (including OASIS) in predicting in-hospital mortality. Furthermore, our results show that the supervised learning algorithms considered in our experiments demonstrated higher predictive performance when trained using the observed clinical variables as opposed to OASIS subscores. Conclusions: Our results suggest that there is room for improving the prognostic accuracy of the OASIS severity scores by replacing the simple linear additive scoring function with more sophisticated non-linear machine learning models such as RF and XGB.
Volume
21
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Otras ciencias médicas
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85105798434
PubMed ID
Source
BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
Resource of which it is part
¿
Sponsor(s)
We are grateful to the researchers at the MIT Laboratory for Computational Physiology and collaborating research groups for making MIMIC-III data and associated code publicly available to the scientific community.
YE is supported by a startup funding from Geisinger Health System. The funder had no role in the design of the study, collection, analysis, or interpretation of data or the writing of the manuscript.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus