Title
Intra-seasonal climate variability and crop diversification strategies in the Peruvian Andes: A word of caution on the sustainability of adaptation to climate change
Date Issued
01 March 2020
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
Elsevier Ltd
Abstract
Agricultural systems are highly sensitive to climate change. Most studies focus on the effect of heat and water availability on crop yields, but little is known about the impact of changes in intra-seasonal climate variability (particularly challenging in mountain regions). Also, beyond the effect on crop yields –mostly focused on single cropping systems and major world crops- little analysis has been done on more complex, diversified and low-input cropping systems like those prevalent in the Andean region. This study investigates whether Andean farmers respond to increasing climate variability by increasing crop diversity (measured by intercropping and crop diversification indices) and by switching to crops which better tolerate heterogeneous environmental conditions. Since previous studies show that crop diversification fosters resilience of agricultural systems, decreasing crop portfolio diversity in an increasingly variable environment may challenge farms sustainability. The data used in the analysis combines district-level socio-economic information from two agrarian censuses (1994 and 2012) with district-level climate estimates of mean temperature, temperature range and precipitation (averages for periods 1964–1994 and 1982–2012). Based on fixed effects models that allow for sub-region parameter heterogeneity, I find that an increase in intra-seasonal climate variability leads farmers in colder areas (<11 °C during the growing season) to concentrate their portfolio into more tolerant crops and reduce intercropping (a practice potentially efficient at controlling pest and disease). This effect is especially strong in the Southern region (more indigenous, less integrated to markets). These results complement previous studies by providing robust and regionally representative evidence on small-farmers’ nonlinear response to climate variability. Furthermore, given that Andean farmers received little-to-no help to adapt to climate change during the period under analysis, this study informs about farmers' autonomous adaptation to climate changes and raises concern on current adaptation responses that may hamper agricultural system's sustainability in the face of climate change.
Volume
127
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Investigación climática Ecología
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85075206069
Source
World Development
ISSN of the container
0305750X
DOI of the container
10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104740
Source funding
International Development Research Centre
Canadian Economics Association
Sustainability and Development
International Development Research Centre
Sponsor(s)
This work was supported by the International Development Research Centre , Canada, through the Think Tank Initiative. The study is part of my doctoral dissertation at the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Peru. I am especially grateful to my advisors Javier Escobal and Javier Iguíñiz for their helpful comments and encouragement, and to two anonymous reviewers for their thorough revision and helpful suggestions. I also thank seminar participants of the 2018 Sustainability and Development Conference and the 2016 Conference of the Canadian Economics Association, as well as IDRC officers in Ottawa and seminar participants at the Group for the Analysis of Development, for their contributions to an early draft. Remaining errors are, of course, my responsibility. Appendix 1 This work was supported by the International Development Research Centre, Canada, through the Think Tank Initiative. The study is part of my doctoral dissertation at the Pontificia Universidad Cat?lica del Peru. I am especially grateful to my advisors Javier Escobal and Javier Igu??iz for their helpful comments and encouragement, and to two anonymous reviewers for their thorough revision and helpful suggestions. I also thank seminar participants of the 2018 Sustainability and Development Conference and the 2016 Conference of the Canadian Economics Association, as well as IDRC officers in Ottawa and seminar participants at the Group for the Analysis of Development, for their contributions to an early draft. Remaining errors are, of course, my responsibility.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus