Title
Probabilistic space-and time-interaction modeling of mainshock earthquake rupture occurrence
Date Issued
01 October 2020
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Stanford University
Publisher(s)
Seismological Society of America
Abstract
This article presents a probabilistic formulation for modeling earthquake rupture processes of mainshocks. A correlated multivariate Bernoulli distribution is used to model rupture occurrence. The model captures time interaction through the use of Brownian passage-time distributions to assess rupture interarrival in multiple sections of the fault, and it also considers spatial interaction through the use of spatial correlograms. The correlograms represents the effect of rupture nucleation and propagation. This model is proposed as an attractive alternative to existing probabilistic models because it (1) incorporates time and space interactions of mainshocks, (2) preserves the marginal distributions of interarrival times after including spatial rupture interactions, that is, model consistency, and (3) has an implicit physical interpretation aligned with rupture behavior observations. The proposed model is applied to assess the occurrence of large interface earthquakes in the subduction fault along the coast of Lima, Peru. The model matches well both the annual magnitude exceedance rates and the average seismic moment release in the tectonic region. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) test confirms that our model performs statistically better than models that do not capture earthquake space interactions. AIC also shows that the spherical correlogram outperforms the exponential correlogram at reproducing earthquake data. Finally, time-dependent seismic hazard in the region is calculated, and the results demonstrate that by accounting for recent earthquake occurrences, the inclusion of time-dependent effects can reduce the 30 yr seismic hazard by a factor of 4.
Start page
2498
End page
2518
Volume
110
Issue
5
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias de la Tierra, Ciencias ambientales
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85089993076
Source
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
ISSN of the container
00371106
Sponsor(s)
The authors thank William Ellsworth, from the School of Earth, Energy, and Environmental Sciences at Stanford University, who provided insightful comments and feedback regarding the model proposed in the article. The authors also appreciate the constructive comments and suggestions of the BSSA reviewers of the article. This research was funded by the John A. Blume Research Fellowship and the Shah Family Fellowship through the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. In addition, this research was partially supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant 1645335. The authors are grateful for their generous support.
Sources of information:
Directorio de ProducciĂ³n CientĂfica
Scopus