Title
Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus
Date Issued
01 July 2014
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Reiner R.C.
Stoddard S.T.
Forshey B.M.
King A.A.
Ellis A.M.
Lloyd A.L.
Long K.C.
Lenhart A.
Vazquez-Prokopec G.M.
McCall P.J.
Kitron U.
Elder J.P.
Halsey E.S.
Morrison A.C.
Kochel T.J.
Scott T.W.
US Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6
US Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6
US Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6
US Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6
Tulane University
Publisher(s)
National Academy of Sciences
Abstract
Infectious disease models play a key role in public health planning. These models rely on accurate estimates of key transmission parameters such as the force of infection (FoI), which is the percapita risk of a susceptible person being infected. The FoI captures the fundamental dynamics of transmission and is crucial for gauging control efforts, such as identifying vaccination targets. Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne, multiserotype pathogen that currently infects ≤390 million people a year. Existing estimates of the DENV FoI are inaccurate because they rely on the unrealistic assumption that risk is constant over time. Dengue models are thus unreliable for designing vaccine deployment strategies. Here, we present to our knowledge the first time-varying (daily), serotype-specific estimates of DENV FoIs using a spline-based fitting procedure designed to examine a 12-y, longitudinal DENV serological dataset from Iquitos, Peru (11,703 individuals, 38,416 samples, and 22,301 serotypespecific DENV infections from 1999 to 2010). The yearly DENV FoI varied markedly across time and serotypes (0-0.33), as did daily basic reproductive numbers (0.49-4.72). During specific time periods, the FoI fluctuations correlated across serotypes, indicating that different DENV serotypes shared common transmission drivers. The marked variation in transmission intensity that we detected indicates that intervention targets based on one-time estimates of the FoI could underestimate the level of effort needed to prevent disease. Our description of dengue virus transmission dynamics is unprecedented in detail, providing a basis for understanding the persistence of this rapidly emerging pathogen and improving disease prevention programs.
Volume
111
Issue
26
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Enfermedades infecciosas
Ciencias de la salud
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84903716316
PubMed ID
Source
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN of the container
00278424
Sponsor(s)
Fogarty International Center
National Institutes of Health, R01AI091980, RO1 AI-42332, RO1 AI069341
National Science Foundation, DMS 1246991
Wellcome Trust, 08571
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, R01AI069341, NIAID
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus