Title
Managing risks and future options from new lakes in the deglaciating Andes of Peru: The example of the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin
Date Issued
15 May 2019
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
University of Zurich
Publisher(s)
Elsevier B.V.
Abstract
Rapidly growing lakes in deglaciating mountain regions represent both: emerging risks and options for human livelihoods. In the Andes of Peru, seasonal water scarcity and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) pose a serious threat for highly exposed and vulnerable people. In addition, water demand is growing due to increasing irrigated agriculture, population and hydropower production. In this context, we assess current and future water risks and management options for the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin, Southern Peru. Therefore, the GLOF susceptibility of glacier lakes and the potential maximum reach of damaging flow were analysed. Eighteen out of 134 current and another six out of 20 future glacier lakes were identified as potentially highly susceptible to GLOF. A total of eight existing and one possible future lakes indicate very high risk potentials. Furthermore, a comprehensive surface water balance scheme for five selected subcatchments reveals that future river discharge could be reduced by some 2–11% (7–14%) until 2050 (2100). Particularly in headwaters and during dry seasons, glacier contribution representing roughly 15–25% to total streamflow is crucial and would substantially decrease to below 4–22% (1–3%) until 2050 (2100) with strong glacier shrinkage under intense warming (scenario RCP8.5). In the middle and lower basin, long-term water availability could be jeopardized by growing irrigated agriculture and hydropower capacity. Combining a GLOF and water shortage risk assessment, three key hotspots of current and future water risks were identified. In the context of the identified risks and complex intertwining of water users involving conflict potentials, robust adaptation planning is necessary within an integrative water and risk management framework. Therefore, it is crucial to incorporate ancestral and local knowledge for long-term management planning and implementation. This process should take place beyond temporarily limited governmental and project agency and strengthen broad acceptance of corresponding measures for adapting to hydroclimatic and socioeconomic changes.
Start page
465
End page
483
Volume
665
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
IngenierÃa oceanográfica
IngenierÃa ambiental y geológica
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85061540082
PubMed ID
Source
Science of the Total Environment
ISSN of the container
00489697
Sponsor(s)
This study was developed in the framework of the ‘Proyecto Glaciares+’, an initiative by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and the government of Peru, implemented by CARE Peru and a Swiss consortium led by the University of Zurich. Further support from the Project ‘AguaFuturo’ funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF), and the German Research Foundation (DFG) under the joint DACH project (no. 205121L_166272 ) is acknowledged. We would like to thank Holger Frey (University of Zurich) for his insight comments on the MSF modelling, as well as Javier GarcÃa and Javier Fluixá (Crealp) and Mario Rohrer (Meteodat) for their help during the development of the water balance model. We are particularly grateful to the reviewer Adam Emmer (Czech Globe) for his thorough review of the manuscript including important remarks on the GLOF risk assessment. The comments of two additional anonymous reviewers are acknowledged as well. We also thank Walter Choquevilca and Liw Canales for the exchange during the field trip to Pitumarca and Ausangate. Furthermore, we acknowledge the collaboration with CARE Peru and the Office for Glacier and Lake Evaluation (AEGL) of the National Water Authority (ANA) of Peru.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción CientÃfica
Scopus