Title
Quantitative analysis of technology futures: A review of techniques, uses and characteristics
Date Issued
01 October 2016
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Ciarli T.
Rafols I.
University of Sussex
Publisher(s)
Oxford University Press
Abstract
A variety of quantitative techniques have been used in the past in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA). In recent years, increased computational power and data availability have led to the emergence of new techniques that are potentially useful for foresight and forecasting. As a result, there are now many techniques that might be used in FTA exercises. This paper reviews and qualifies quantitative methods for FTA in order to help users to make choices among alternative techniques, including new techniques that have not yet been integrated into the FTA literature and practice. We first provide a working definition of FTA and discuss its role, uses, and popularity over recent decades. Second, we select the most important quantitative FTA techniques, discuss their main contexts and uses, and classify them into groups with common characteristics, positioning them along key dimensions: descriptive/ prescriptive, extrapolative/normative, data gathering/inference, and forecasting/foresight.
Start page
630
End page
645
Volume
43
Issue
5
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias de la computación Ingeniería de sistemas y comunicaciones
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85013639922
Source
Science and Public Policy
ISSN of the container
03023427
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus