Title
Stochastic volatility in mean models with heavy-tailed distributions
Date Issued
01 November 2012
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract
A stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) model using the class of symmetric scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions is introduced in this article. The SMN distributions form a class of symmetric thick-tailed distributions that includes the normal one as a special case, providing a robust alternative to estimation in SVM models in the absence of normality. A Bayesian method via Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques is used to estimate parameters. The deviance information criterion (DIC) and the Bayesian predictive information criteria (BPIC) are calculated to compare the fit of distributions. The method is illustrated by analyzing daily stock return data from the São Paulo Stock, Mercantile & Futures Exchange index (IBOVESPA). According to both model selection criteria as well as out-of-sample forecasting, we found that the SVM model with slash distribution provides a significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction for the IBOVESPA data over the usual normal model. © Brazilian Statistical Association, 2012.
Start page
402
End page
422
Volume
26
Issue
4
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Economía
Econometría
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84869825887
Source
Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics
ISSN of the container
01030752
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus