The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with important clinical outcomes in a case-control study of 213 patients with lupus nephritis. Included were 47% Hispanics, 44% African Americans and 9% Caucasians with a mean age of 28 years. Fifty-four (25%) patients reached the primary composite outcome of doubling serum creatinine, end-stage renal disease or death during a mean follow-up of 37 months. Thirty-four percent African Americans, 20% Hispanics and 10% Caucasians reached the primary composite outcome (P < 0.05). Patients reaching the composite outcome had predominantly proliferative lupus nephritis (WHO classes: 30% III, 32% IV, 18% V and 5% II, P < 0.025) with higher activity index score (7 ± 6 versus 5 ± 5, P < 0.05), chronicity index (CI) score (4 ± 3 versus 2 ± 2 unit, P < 0.025), higher baseline mean arterial pressure (MAP) (111 ± 21 versus 102 ± 14 mmHg, P < 0.025) and serum creatinine (1.9 ± 1.3 versus 1.3 ± 1.0 mg/dL, P < 0.025), but lower baseline hematocrit (29 ± 6 versus 31 + 5%, P < 0.025) and complement C3 (54 ± 26 versus 65 + 33 mg/dL, P < 0.025) compared to controls. More patients reaching the composite outcome had nephrotic range proteinuria compared to controls (74% versus 56%, P < 0.025). By multivariate analysis, CI (hazard ratio [95% CI] 1.18 [1.07-1.30] per point), MAP (HR 1.02 [1.00-1.03] per mmHg), and baseline serum creatinine (HR 1.26 [1.04-1.54] per mg/dL) were independently associated with the composite outcome. We concluded that hypertension and elevated serum creatinine at the time of the kidney biopsy as well as a high CI are associated with an increased the risk for chronic renal failure or death in patients with lupus nephritis. © 2005 Edward Arnold (Publishers) Ltd.