Title
Future evolution of Marine Heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea
Date Issued
15 August 2019
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Darmaraki S.
Somot S.
Sevault F.
Nabat P.
Cavicchia L.
Djurdjevic V.
Li L.
Sannino G.
Sein D.V.
University of Alcalá
Publisher(s)
Springer Verlag
Abstract
Extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), have been observed to perturb significantly marine ecosystems and fisheries around the world. Here, we propose a detection method for long-lasting and large-scale summer MHWs, using a local, climatological 99th percentile threshold, based on present-climate (1976–2005) daily SST. To assess their future evolution in the Mediterranean Sea we use, for the first time, a dedicated ensemble of fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models from the Med-CORDEX initiative and a multi-scenario approach. The models appear to simulate well MHW properties during historical period, despite biases in mean and extreme SST. In response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing, the events become stronger and more intense under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. By 2100 and under RCP8.5, simulations project at least one long-lasting MHW every year, up to three months longer, about 4 times more intense and 42 times more severe than present-day events. They are expected to occur from June-October and to affect at peak the entire basin. Their evolution is found to occur mainly due to an increase in the mean SST, but increased daily SST variability also plays a noticeable role. Until the mid-21st century, MHW characteristics rise independently of the choice of the emission scenario, the influence of which becomes more evident by the end of the period. Further analysis reveals different climate change responses in certain configurations, more likely linked to their driving global climate model rather than to the individual model biases.
Start page
1371
End page
1392
Volume
53
Issue
April 3
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Oceanografía, Hidrología, Recursos hídricos
Investigación climática
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85069682300
Source
Climate Dynamics
ISSN of the container
09307575
Sponsor(s)
“We would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions. This research was funded by the MARmaED project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 675997. The result of this publication reflects only the author’s view and the Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. This work is also a part of the Med-CORDEX initiative ( www.medcordex.eu ) and HyMeX programme ( www.hymex.org ). Dmitry V.Sein was supported by the EC Horizon 2020 project PRIMAVERA under the grant agreement 641727 and the state assignment of FASO Russia (theme No.0149-2018-0014)”. V.Djordjevic was partially supported by the Serbian Ministry of Science, Education and Technological Development, under grant No.III43007.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus