Title
Real option value calculation by Monte Carlo simulation and approximation by fuzzy numbers and genetic algorithms
Date Issued
01 January 2009
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
PUC-Rio
Abstract
This chapter describes, in two parts, the methodology proposed for obtaining an approximation of the real option value and of the optimal decision rule for several project investment options by considering technical and market uncertainty. The first part describes the method which approximates the value of a real option using fuzzy numbers to represent technical uncertainties and known stochastic processes to represent market uncertainty (commodity prices), which are used in combination with stochastic simulations (Monte Carlo simulation) so as to reduce the computational time spent on Monte Carlo simulation runs. The second part describes the method for approximating an optimal decision rule and determining the value of a real option for the case where there are several project investment alternatives (options). This method makes use of a genetic algorithm and of known stochastic processes for representing market uncertainty (commodity prices), which are used in combination with stochastic simulations (Monte Carlo simulation) and with variance reduction techniques. © 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Start page
139
End page
186
Volume
183
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias de la computación
Otras ingenierías y tecnologías
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-59549084917
Source
Studies in Computational Intelligence
Resource of which it is part
Studies in Computational Intelligence
ISSN of the container
1860949X
ISBN of the container
9783540929994
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus