Title
Design of a nonlinear SITR fractal model based on the dynamics of a novel coronavirus (Covid-19)
Date Issued
01 January 2020
Access level
open access
Resource Type
research article
Author(s)
Sánchez Y.G.
Guirao J.L.G.
Abstract
The aim of the present paper is to state a simplified nonlinear mathematical model to describe the dynamics of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The design of the mathematical model is described in terms of four categories susceptible (S), infected (I), treatment (T) and recovered (R), i.e. SITR model with fractals parameters. These days there are big controversy on if is needed to apply confinement measure to the population of the word or if the infection must develop a natural stabilization sharing with it our normal life (like USA or Brazil administrations claim). The aim of our study is to present different scenarios where we draw the evolution of the model in four different cases depending on the contact rate between people. We show that if no confinement rules are applied the stabilization of the infection arrives around 300 days affecting a huge number of population. On the contrary with a contact rate small, due to confinement and social distancing rules, the stabilization of the infection is reached earlier.
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Estadísticas, Probabilidad
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85089973841
Source
Fractals
ISSN of the container
0218348X
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus