Human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) is the aetiological agent of HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). The objective of this study is to identify which ex vivo and in vivo markers are associated independently with HAM/TSP in a Peruvian population. Eighty-one subjects (33 men/48 women) were enrolled: 35 presented with HAM/TSP, 33 were asymptomatic HTLV-1 carriers (ACs) and 13 were HTLV-1-seronegative controls (SCs). Ex vivo markers included T cell proliferation and Th1 [interferon (IFN)-γ], Th2 [interleukin (IL)-4, IL-5], proinflammatory [tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α] and anti-inflammatory (IL-10) cytokine production in non-stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) cultures. In vivo CD4+ T cell count, markers of Th1 [interferon-inducible protein (IP)-10] and Th2 (sCD30) activity in plasma and HTLV-1 proviral load in PBMCs were also evaluated. In univariate analysis, several markers, including T cell proliferation, IFN-γ, IP-10, sCD30 and proviral load were associated with HAM/TSP, but in a multiple logistic regression analysis only the proviral load remained associated significantly with disease manifestation [adjusted OR 9.10 (1.24-66.91)]. Our findings suggest that HAM/TSP is associated primarily with proviral load, whereas the observed association with some immune markers seems secondary. © 2006 The Author(s).