Title
Determination of real options value by Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy numbers
Date Issued
01 December 2005
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
conference paper
Author(s)
Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract
This work presents the development of a methodology based on Monte Carlo Simulation, Fuzzy Numbers and in the Real Options Theory to determine the real options value under technical and market uncertainties. The objective of the proposed methodology is to substantially reduce the computational time involved, facilitating the decision taking process. The methodology involves: fuzzy numbers, to represent certain types of uncertainties that does not have a known stochastic process that can correctly model them; stochastic processes to represent other uncertainties; and Monte Carlo simulation to generate a good approximation of the real option value. This methodology was evaluated in problems of expansion option in the area of oil exploration and production, attaining the same results provided by conventional techniques but with a significant reduction in the necessary computational time. © 2005 IEEE.
Start page
488
End page
493
Volume
2005
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ingeniería de sistemas y comunicaciones
Ingeniería eléctrica, Ingeniería electrónica
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-33846943698
Resource of which it is part
Proceedings - HIS 2005: Fifth International Conference on Hybrid Intelligent Systems
ISBN of the container
9780769524573
Conference
HIS 2005: Fifth International Conference on Hybrid Intelligent Systems 6 November 2005 through 9 November 2005
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus