cris.boxmetadata.label.title
Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility models using the generalized skew-t distribution with applications to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange returns
cris.boxmetadata.label.dateissued
01 browse.startsWith.months.january 2014
cris.boxmetadata.label.accesslevel
open access
cris.boxmetadata.label.resourcetype
journal article
cris.boxmetadata.label.authors
Wang C.
Wang X.
Wang F.
Chen M.
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Caixa
cris.boxmetadata.label.publisher
International Press of Boston, Inc.
cris.boxmetadata.label.abstract
In this paper, we propose a new stochastic volatility model based on a generalized skew-Student-t distribution for stock returns. This new model allows a parsimonious and flexible treatment of the skewness and heavy tails in the conditional distribution of the returns. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm is developed for computing the posterior estimates of the model parameters. Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting via a computational Bayesian framework are considered. The MCMC-based method exploits a skewnormal mixture representation of the error distribution. The proposed methodology is applied to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index (SZSE-CI) daily returns. Bayesian model selection criteria reveal that there is a significant improvement in model fit to the SZSE-CI returns data by using the SV model based on a generalized skew-Student-t distribution over the usual normal and Student-t models. Empirical results show that the skewness can improve VaR and ES forecasting in comparison with the normal and Student-t models. We demonstrate that the generalized skew-Studentt tail behavior is important in modeling stock returns data.
cris.boxmetadata.label.citationstartpage
487
cris.boxmetadata.label.citationendpage
502
cris.boxmetadata.label.volume
7
cris.boxmetadata.label.issue
4
cris.boxmetadata.label.language
English
cris.boxmetadata.label.ocdeknowledgeArea
Economía Negocios, Administración
cris.boxmetadata.label.doi
cris.boxmetadata.label.scopusidentifier
2-s2.0-84920067017
cris.boxmetadata.label.source
Statistics and its Interface
cris.boxmetadata.label.containerissn
19387989
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