Title
Bayesian inference for stochastic volatility models using the generalized skew-t distribution with applications to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange returns
Date Issued
01 January 2014
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Caixa
Publisher(s)
International Press of Boston, Inc.
Abstract
In this paper, we propose a new stochastic volatility model based on a generalized skew-Student-t distribution for stock returns. This new model allows a parsimonious and flexible treatment of the skewness and heavy tails in the conditional distribution of the returns. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm is developed for computing the posterior estimates of the model parameters. Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting via a computational Bayesian framework are considered. The MCMC-based method exploits a skewnormal mixture representation of the error distribution. The proposed methodology is applied to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index (SZSE-CI) daily returns. Bayesian model selection criteria reveal that there is a significant improvement in model fit to the SZSE-CI returns data by using the SV model based on a generalized skew-Student-t distribution over the usual normal and Student-t models. Empirical results show that the skewness can improve VaR and ES forecasting in comparison with the normal and Student-t models. We demonstrate that the generalized skew-Studentt tail behavior is important in modeling stock returns data.
Start page
487
End page
502
Volume
7
Issue
4
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Economía
Negocios, Administración
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84920067017
Source
Statistics and its Interface
ISSN of the container
19387989
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus