Title
Grid-based simulation method for spatial electric load forecasting using power-law distribution with fractal exponent
Date Issued
01 June 2016
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Carreno E.
Padilha-Feltrin A.
Minussi C.
Universidade Estadual Paulista
Publisher(s)
John Wiley and Sons Ltd
Abstract
A grid-based simulation method to forecast the spatial growth of load density in a distribution utility service zone is presented. The future load density is simulated considering a city's dynamic growth. A power-law distribution with fractal exponent is used to determine how much the load density will increase/decrease depending on different factors like: natural growth following patterns, spontaneous new loads without predefined patterns, and urban poles growth that attract/repel new consumers. These factors are simulated using two modules that exchange information. The final result will display a map with future load density considering a heterogeneous distribution, which is the main contribution of this work. The method is tested on a real distribution system in a medium-sized Brazilian city. The most important characteristic of this method is its high efficiency in spatial load density recognition with less input data than traditional spatial load forecasting methodologies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Start page
1339
End page
1357
Volume
26
Issue
6
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ingeniería eléctrica, Ingeniería electrónica
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84944400190
Source
International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems
Sponsor(s)
Funding text The authors gratefully acknowledge the economical support grant #2014/06629-0, São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP), CAPES and CNPq (grants-303817/2012-7, 473679/2013-2) in this project.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus