Title
Forecast and evaluation of COVID-19 spreading in USA with reduced-space Gaussian process regression
Date Issued
01 July 2020
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
Elsevier Ltd
Abstract
In this report, we analyze historical and forecast infections for COVID-19 death based on Reduced-Space Gaussian Process Regression associated to chaotic Dynamical Systems with information obtained in 82 days with continuous learning, day by day, from January 21th, 2020 to April 12th. According last results, COVID-19 could be predicted with Gaussian models mean-field models can be meaning- fully used to gather a quantitative picture of the epidemic spreading, with infections, fatality and recovery rate. The forecast places the peak in USA around July 14th 2020, with a peak number of 132,074 death with infected individuals of about 1,157,796 and a number of deaths at the end of the epidemics of about 132,800. Late on January, USA confirmed the first patient with COVID-19, who had recently traveled to China, however, an evaluation of states in USA have demonstrated a fatality rate in China (4%) is lower than New York (4.56%), but lower than Michigan (5.69%). Mean estimates and uncertainty bounds for both USA and his cities and other provinces have increased in the last three months, with focus on New York, New Jersey, Michigan, California, Massachusetts,. (January e April 12th). Besides, we propose a Reduced-Space Gaussian Process Regression model predicts that the epidemic will reach saturation in USA on July 2020. Our findings suggest, new quarantine actions with more restrictions for containment strategies implemented in USA could be successfully, but in a late period, it could generate critical rate infections and death for the next 2 month.
Volume
136
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Sistema respiratorio Epidemiología
Publication version
Version of Record
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85085489253
Source
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals
ISSN of the container
0960-0779
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus