Title
Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes
Date Issued
01 February 2018
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Abstract
One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%–29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ ha−1 yr−1. These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non-climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development.
Start page
e592
End page
e602
Volume
24
Issue
2
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Meteorología y ciencias atmosféricas Agricultura
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85041303889
PubMed ID
Source
Global Change Biology
ISSN of the container
13541013
Sponsor(s)
Funding text We wish to thank the local farmers of Huamburque for granting permission to work on their lands, and Saul M. Tito Leon for his help with the identification of the herbivores and pathogens. We also thank Dr. Alan N. Andersen and two anonymous reviewers for reading and commenting on earlier drafts of the manuscript. Financial support was provided by the Federal University of Uberlândia (through its Graduate Program in Ecology and Conservation), the Brazilian Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES, through its Scholarship of the Graduate Program - PEC-PG, CAPES/CNPq), the Brazilian Council of Research and Scientific Development (CNPq grant 302588/2015-9 to HLV) and the US National Science Foundation (DEB-1350125 to KJF).
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus