Title
Multifold predictive validation in ARMAX time series models
Date Issued
01 March 2005
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Abstract
This article presents a new procedure for multifold predictive validation in time series. The procedure is based on the so-called "iltered residuals," in-sample prediction errors evaluated in such a way that they are similar to out-of-sample ones. The filtered residuals are obtained from parameters estimated by eliminating from the estimation process the estimated innovations at the points to be predicted. Thus, instead of using the deletion of observations to validate the predictions, as in classical cross-validation, the procedure is based on deletion of the estimated innovations. It is proved that the filtered residuals are uncorrelated, up to terms of small order, with the in-sample innovations, a property shared with the out-of-sample residuals. The parameters needed for computing the filtered residuals can be obtained by estimating a model with innovational outliers at the points to be predicted. The proposed multifold predictive validation is asymptotically equivalent to an efficient model selection procedure. Some Monte Carlo evidence of the performance of the procedure is presented, and the application is illustrated in an example. © 2005 American Statistical Association.
Start page
135
End page
146
Volume
100
Issue
469
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Estadísticas, Probabilidad
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-14944342462
Source
Journal of the American Statistical Association
ISSN of the container
01621459
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus