Title
Prediction of the number of confirmed cases and deaths from covid-19 using the logistic growth model in south american countries
Other title
Pronóstico del número de casos confirmados y muertes por covid-19 mediante el modelo de crecimiento logístico en los países sudamericanos
Date Issued
01 January 2021
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Publisher(s)
Associacao Iberica de Sistemas e Tecnologias de Informacao
Abstract
The objective of this study is to present long-term forecasts of the accumulated number of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 per million inhabitants from the first confirmed case to day 350 in each South American country, using the logistic growth model with three parameters. From the study it was observed that the parameters of the logistics models in each country were significant, adequately representing their projections, presenting the real values on the projected logistics curve in each country. Comparing the forecasts of the number of confirmed cases and deaths, it was observed that Paraguay, Peru and Argentina will take longer to significantly reduce the number of confirmed cases and Argentina in the number of deaths. On the other hand, Venezuela and Uruguay present the number of confirmed cases and deaths accumulated almost constantly, that is, there will be no significant increases during the following months.
Start page
330
End page
338
Volume
2021
Issue
E40
Language
Spanish
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias de la información
Ciencias de la computación
Salud pública, Salud ambiental
Estadísticas, Probabilidad
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85101928591
Source
RISTI - Revista Iberica de Sistemas e Tecnologias de Informacao
ISSN of the container
16469895
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus