Title
Statistical Downscaling Based Correction of the HadGEM2 Family General Circulation Models: Rimac Basin, Peru
Date Issued
01 January 2017
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
conference paper
Publisher(s)
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Abstract
Lima holds ~30% of Peru's entire population. It is listed among the 30 most populated cities of the world, and since the past decade, it faces an increasing water stress. In this context, evaluating future precipitation patterns in the Rimac Basin, which runs along Lima and provides for 60% of the drinking water to its population, is crucial. In this paper, we use statistical downscaling (SD) to correct and evaluate 22 years (Set/1982-Ago/2004) of historical daily precipitation data from the HadGEM2 general circulation models (GCM) to assess a near future time frame (Dec/2015-Nov/2045) being centered in 2030. To perform SD, we apply quantile-mapping techniques that uses a non-parametric transformation function being represented by the Bernoulli-Gamma mixture probabilistic model from eight ground weather stations. HadGEM2 models were evaluated by considering two model efficiency metrics, namely: bias and relative root mean squared error (RRSME). Our results show that the bias and RRSME were reduced to the ranges 0.7-1.6 units and-2.3%-8.3%, respectively. Likewise, we determined that the HadHGEM2-ES and HadHGEM2-CC models performed markedly better during dry and wet seasons.
Start page
545
End page
556
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias de la Tierra, Ciencias ambientales
Oceanografía, Hidrología, Recursos hídricos
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85021430690
Resource of which it is part
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017: Groundwater, Sustainability, and Hydro-Climate/Climate Change - Selected Papers from the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017
ISBN of the container
9780784480618
Conference
17th World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus