Title
Earthquake supercycle in subduction zones controlled by the width of the seismogenic zone
Date Issued
01 June 2015
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Herrendörfer R.
Van Dinther Y.
Gerya T.
Swissnuclear
Publisher(s)
Nature Publishing Group
Abstract
A supercycle describes a long-term cluster of diferently-sized megathrust earthquakes, leading up to the final complete failure of a subduction zone segment1,2. The precise controls on supercycles are unclear, although structural and frictional heterogeneities are proposed1.We recognize that supercycles are suggested to occur in those regions1-4 where the estimated downdip width of the seismogenic zone5-7 is larger than average. Here we investigate the link between supercycles and the seismogenic zone downdip width using a two-dimensional numerical model8. In our simulations, the first megathrust earthquakes in a supercycle generally rupture only the outermost parts of the seismogenic zone. These partial ruptures are stopped owing to a large excess of strength over stress, and transfer stresses towards the centre of the seismogenic zone. In addition to the continued tectonic loading, they thereby gradually reduce the strength excess so that the largest megathrust events finally rupture the entire seismogenic zone and release most of the accumulated stress. A greater width increases the average strength excess and thus favours supercycles over ordinary cycles of only similarly sized complete ruptures.Ourresults imply that larger than thus far observed earthquakes could conclude a supercycle where seismogenic zone widths are larger than average.
Start page
471
End page
474
Volume
8
Issue
6
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Geoquímica, Geofísica Geociencias, Multidisciplinar
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84987834849
Source
Nature Geoscience
ISSN of the container
17520894
Sponsor(s)
We thank F. Corbi and F. Funiciello for comments that have helped improve the manuscript. We thank A-A. Gabriel and H. Tobin for discussions. We are grateful to A. Heuret for providing us with a GMT script to plot Fig. 1. Numerical simulations were performed on ETH cluster Brutus. R.H. was supported by the SNSF grant 200021-153524, Y.v.D. and T.G. by an ERC-ITN grant ZIP.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus