Title
Modeling and Predicting the Lima Stock Exchange General Index with Bayesian Networks and Information from Foreign Markets
Date Issued
01 January 2021
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
conference paper
Publisher(s)
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Abstract
This paper presents a Bayesian Network approach to model and forecast the daily return direction of the Lima stock Exchange general index using foreign market’s information. Thirteen worldwide stock market indices were used along with the copper future that is negotiated in New York. The proposed approach was compared against popular machine learning methods, including decision tree, SVM, Multilayer Perceptron and Long short-term memory networks. The results showed competitive results at classifying both positive and negative classes. The approach allows graphical representation of the relationships between the markets, which facilitate the understanding on the target market in the global context. A web application was developed to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort to model the influences of the main stock markets around the world on the Lima Stock Exchange general index.
Start page
154
End page
168
Volume
1410 CCIS
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Econometría Economía
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85111164131
Source
Communications in Computer and Information Science
Resource of which it is part
Communications in Computer and Information Science
ISSN of the container
18650929
ISBN of the container
978-303076227-8
Conference
7th Annual International Conference on Information Management and Big Data, SIMBig 2020
Sponsor(s)
Acknowledgment. The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support by Pontifical Catholic University of Peru (CAP program, project ID 735).
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus