Title
Numerical modelling of coronavirus pandemic in Peru
Date Issued
26 February 2022
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
Walter de Gruyter GmbH
Abstract
Objectives: The main objective of this research is to demonstrate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (social isolation and quarantine) and of vaccination. Methods: The SIR epidemiological numerical model has been revised to obtain a new model (SAIRDQ), which involves additional variables: the population that died due to the disease (D), the isolated (A), quarantined population (Q) and the effect of vaccination. We have obtained the epidemiological parameters from the data, which are not constant during the evolution of the pandemic, using an iterative approximation method. Results: Analysis of the data of infected and deceased suggest that the evolution of the coronavirus epidemic in Peru has arrived at the end of the second wave (around October 2021). We have simulated the effect of quarantine and vaccination, which are effective measures to reduce the impact of the pandemic. For a variable infection and isolation rate, due to the end of the quarantine, the death toll would be around 200 thousand; if the isolation and quarantine were relaxed since March 01, 2021, there could be more than 280 thousand deaths. Conclusions: Without non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination, the number of deaths would be much higher than 280 thousand.
Volume
11
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Enfermedades infecciosas Epidemiología
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85125811104
Source
Epidemiologic Methods
ISSN of the container
21949263
Sponsor(s)
We thank Dr. Roxana López (UNMSM) for her comments in the revision of the manuscript. We acknowledge the funding from Concytec, through the RENACYT Research bonus.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus