Title
BUMPER v1.0: A Bayesian user-friendly model for palaeo-environmental reconstruction
Date Issued
01 February 2017
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Holden P.B.
Birks H.J.B.
Brooks S.J.
Bush M.B.
Hwang G.M.
Matthews-Bird F.
Van Woesik R.
Florida Institute of Technology
Publisher(s)
Copernicus GmbH
Abstract
We describe the Bayesian user-friendly model for palaeo-environmental reconstruction (BUMPER), a Bayesian transfer function for inferring past climate and other environmental variables from microfossil assemblages. BUMPER is fully self-calibrating, straightforward to apply, and computationally fast, requiring ĝ1/4 ĝ€2ĝ€s to build a 100-taxon model from a 100-site training set on a standard personal computer. We apply the model's probabilistic framework to generate thousands of artificial training sets under ideal assumptions. We then use these to demonstrate the sensitivity of reconstructions to the characteristics of the training set, considering assemblage richness, taxon tolerances, and the number of training sites. We find that a useful guideline for the size of a training set is to provide, on average, at least 10 samples of each taxon. We demonstrate general applicability to real data, considering three different organism types (chironomids, diatoms, pollen) and different reconstructed variables. An identically configured model is used in each application, the only change being the input files that provide the training-set environment and taxon-count data. The performance of BUMPER is shown to be comparable with weighted average partial least squares (WAPLS) in each case. Additional artificial datasets are constructed with similar characteristics to the real data, and these are used to explore the reasons for the differing performances of the different training sets.
Start page
483
End page
498
Volume
10
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Paleontología Sistemas de automatización, Sistemas de control
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85011310404
Source
Geoscientific Model Development
ISSN of the container
1991-959X
Sponsor(s)
We are grateful for the careful reviews of Cajo ter Braak and Andrew Parnell, which greatly helped to clarify the mathematical description of the model. Philip B. Holden was funded through the EPSRC project "Research on Changes of Variability and Environmental Risk" (ReCoVER), award RFFER003. Mark B. Bush, Grace M. Hwang, Bryan G. Valencia, and Robert van Woesik were funded through the Climate Proxies Working Group at the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, sponsored by the National Science Foundation through NSF Award no. DBI-1300426, with additional support from the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Frazer Matthews-Bird was funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) NNX14AD31G. H. John B. Birks was supported by the Research Council of Norway (projects NoAClim and IGNEX).
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus