Title
Robust Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic volatility models using scale mixtures of normal distributions
Date Issued
01 December 2010
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Bandyopadhyay D.
Lachos V.
Enriquez I.
University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract
A Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility (SV) models using the class of symmetric scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions is considered. In the face of non-normality, this provides an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of the normal distribution. Specific distributions examined include the normal, student-t, slash and the variance gamma distributions. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is introduced for parameter estimation. Moreover, the mixing parameters obtained as a by-product of the scale mixture representation can be used to identify outliers. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on S&P500 index. Bayesian model selection criteria as well as out-of-sample forecasting results reveal that the SV models based on heavy-tailed SMN distributions provide significant improvement in model fit as well as prediction to the S&P500 index data over the usual normal model. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Start page
2883
End page
2898
Volume
54
Issue
12
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Estadísticas, Probabilidad
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-77955406949
Source
Computational Statistics and Data Analysis
ISSN of the container
01679473
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus