Title
Assessment of ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast performance over South America
Date Issued
01 April 2020
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Gubler S.
Sedlmeier K.
Bhend J.
Coelho C.A.S.
Escajadillo Y.
Jacques-Coper M.
Martinez R.
Schwierz C.
de Skansi M.
Spirig C.
Publisher(s)
American Meteorological Society
Abstract
Seasonal predictions have a great socioeconomic potential if they are reliable and skillful. In this study, we assess the prediction performance of SEAS5, version 5 of the seasonal prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), over South America against homogenized station data. For temperature, we find the highest prediction performances in the tropics during austral summer, where the probability that the predictions correctly discriminate different observed outcomes is 70%. In regions lying to the east of the Andes, the predictions of maximum and minimum temperature still exhibit considerable performance, while farther to the south in Chile and Argentina the temperature prediction performance is low. Generally, the prediction performance of minimum temperature is slightly lower than for maximum temperature. The prediction performance of precipitation is generally lower and spatially and temporally more variable than for temperature. The highest prediction performance is observed at the coast and over the highlands of Colombia and Ecuador, over the northeastern part of Brazil, and over an isolated region to the north of Uruguay during DJF. In general, Niño-3.4 has a strong influence on both air temperature and precipitation in the regions where ECMWF SEAS5 shows high performance, in some regions through teleconnections (e.g., to the north of Uruguay). However, we show that SEAS5 outperforms a simple empirical prediction based on Niño-3.4 in most regions where the prediction performance of the dynamical model is high, thereby supporting the potential benefit of using a dynamical model instead of statistical relationships for predictions at the seasonal scale.
Start page
561
End page
584
Volume
35
Issue
2
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Investigación climática
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85082037666
Source
Weather and Forecasting
ISSN of the container
08828156
Sponsor(s)
We appreciate the constructive comments of three anonymous reviewers that substantially helped to improve the manuscript. Further, we thank the South American weather services for providing their quality controlled and homogenized datasets for this study. The study was performed within the project Climandes, a pilot project of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) (Hewitt et al. 2012; WMO 2011) that was funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, aiming at providing high-quality climate services in the form of seasonal predictions to decision-makers in the Peruvian Andean region. CASC thanks the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Process 304586/2016-1, and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), Process 2015/50687-8 (CLIMAX Project) for the support received. MJC thanks projects FONDAP 15110009, FONDECYT 11170486, and PAI 79160105 (all CONICYT-Chile). Data availability statement: The data used in this publication are not publicly available. The observational data used for verification fall under restriction to the policy of the South American weather services, and can therefore not be shared with this publication. Readers with interest in the data are asked to contact the respective weather services directly. The use of the ECMWF SEAS5 hindcasts falls under the ECMWF data policy. SEAS5 hindcasts are available on the C3S climate data store, but only since 1993.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus