Title
Autoregressive models may loose its global optimization in recursive multistep ahead forecasting
Date Issued
01 January 2016
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
conference paper
Author(s)
Siqueira H.
Kaster M.
Lyra C.
University of Campinas
Publisher(s)
CSREA Press
Abstract
Among the methods applicable to time series forecasting the autoregressive models stand out. This is explained by their easy mathematical tractability allied with good results. The adjustment of the free parameters is done by an analytic solution - Yule-Walker equations -, which allows to find the global optimum of their cost function. However, the prediction of up to one step ahead in a recursive way violates the global optimization, once suboptimum points may achieve better performances. This work performs the streamflow series forecasting from hydroelectric plants, for a twelve steps ahead horizon. The calculation of the coefficients is done by the artificial immune systems and LMS algorithm. The parameters found were different from those achieved by the Yule-Walker equations, which means that the optimization processes converge to distinct solutions. The computational results indicate that other optimization methodologies should be considered to increase the performance of autoregressive models in multistep prediction.
Start page
349
End page
355
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Estadísticas, Probabilidad Matemáticas Inmunología
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85068316619
ISBN
1601324383 9781601324382
Conference
Proceedings of the 2016 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, ICAI 2016 - WORLDCOMP 2016
Sponsor(s)
This work was supported by grants from CAPES, Fundação Araucária and Secretaria de Estado da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior do Paraná (SETI). Secretaria de Estado da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior do Maranhão
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus