Title
Comparing model complexity for glacio-hydrological simulation in the data-scarce Peruvian Andes
Date Issued
01 October 2021
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Publisher(s)
Elsevier B.V.
Abstract
Study region: Glaciated headwaters of the Vilcanota-Urubamba river basin, Southern Peru Study focus: A pivotal question is if robust hydrological simulation of streamflow in data-scarce and glaciated catchments can be achieved using parsimonious or more complex models. Therefore, a multi-model assessment of three glacio-hydrological models of different complexity was conducted thoroughly analyzing model performance, flow signatures and runoff components. New hydrological insights for the region: In data-scarce catchments, such as in the tropical Andes, parsimonious glacio-hydrological models can provide more robust results than complex models. While the overall performance of all models was reasonably good (R2: 0.65–0.70, Nash-Sutcliffe: 0.65–0.73, Nash-Sutcliffe-ln: 0.73–0.78), with increasing data scarcity more complex models involve higher uncertainties. Furthermore, complex models require substantial understanding of the underpinning hydrological processes and a comprehensive calibration strategy to avoid apparently high model performance driven by inadequate assumptions. Based on these insights we present a framework for robust glacio-hydrological simulation under data scarcity. This stepwise approach includes, among others, a multi-model focus with a comprehensive assessment of flow signatures and runoff components. Future modeling needs to be further supported by alternative data collection strategies to substantially improve knowledge and process understanding. Therefore, the extension of sensor and station networks combined with the integration of co-produced knowledge represents a meaningful measure to robust decision-making for climate change adaptation and water management under high uncertainty.
Volume
37
Number
100932
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Química física Oceanografía, Hidrología, Recursos hídricos
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85118749382
Source
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
ISSN of the container
22145818
Sponsor(s)
This work is part of a PhD project funded by the Swiss Government Excellence Scholarships for Foreign Scholars and Artists and the AguaFuturo project funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (project no. 205121L_166272 ). Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 205121L_166272 SNF
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus