Title
Efficient forecasting in nearly non-stationary processes
Date Issued
01 January 2002
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Publisher(s)
John Wiley and Sons Ltd
Abstract
This paper proposes a procedure to make efficient predictions in a nearly non-stationary process. The method is based on the adaptation of the theory of optimal combination of forecasts to nearly non-stationary processes. The proposed combination method is simple to apply and has a better performance than classical combination procedures. It also has better average performance than a differenced predictor, a fractional differenced predictor, or an optimal unit-root pretest predictor. In the case of a process that has a zero mean, only the non-differenced predictor is slightly better than the proposed combination method. In the general case of a non-zero mean, the proposed combination method has a better overall performance than all its competitors. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Start page
1
End page
26
Volume
21
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ingeniería mecánica
Subjects
DOI
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-0036152573
Source
Journal of Forecasting
ISSN of the container
02776693
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus