Title
A Heavy-Tailed and Overdispersed Collective Risk Model
Date Issued
01 January 2022
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Publisher(s)
Routledge
Abstract
Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, a hierarchical model for collective risk with heavy tails of the claims distributions that also takes into account overdispersion of the number of claims is proposed. In particular, the distribution of the logarithm of the aggregate value of claims is assumed to follow a Student t distribution. Additionally, to incorporate possible overdispersion, the number of claims is modeled as having a negative binomial distribution. Bayesian decision theory is invoked to calculate the fair premium based on the modified absolute deviation utility. An application to a health insurance data set is presented together with some diagnostic measures to identify excess variability. The variability measures are analyzed using the marginal posterior predictive distribution of the premiums according to some competitive models. Finally, a simulation study is carried out to assess the predictive capability of the model and the adequacy of the Bayesian estimation procedure.
Start page
323
End page
335
Volume
26
Issue
3
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Estadísticas, Probabilidad Matemáticas
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85111872964
Source
North American Actuarial Journal
ISSN of the container
10920277
ISBN of the container
10.1080/10920277.2021.1943451
Sponsor(s)
This work was part of the master’s dissertation of P. M. C. Solano under the supervision of F. A. S. Moura. P. M. C. Solano benefited from a scholarship from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) e Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ). The authors thank the editor, associate editor, and two referees for very thoughtful and constructive comments.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus