Title
Hull-WEMA: A novel zero-lag approach in the moving average family, with an application to COVID-19
Date Issued
01 January 2022
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Hansun S.
Gherman T.
Varadarajan V.
University of Bradford
Publisher(s)
Inderscience Publishers
Abstract
The moving average (MA) is undeniably one of the most popular forecasting methods in time series analysis. In this study, we consider two variants of MA, namely the weighted exponential moving average (WEMA) and the hull moving average (HMA). WEMA, which was introduced in 2013, has been widely used in different scenarios but still suffers from lags. To address this shortcoming, we propose a novel zero-lag Hull-WEMA method that combines HMA and WEMA. We apply and compare the proposed approach with HMA and WEMA by using COVID-19 time series data from ten different countries with the highest number of cases on the last observed date. Results show that the new approach achieves a better accuracy level than HMA and WEMA. Overall, the paper advocates a white-box forecasting method, which can be used to predict the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the short run more accurately.
Start page
92
End page
112
Volume
21
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Tecnología médica de laboratorio (análisis de muestras, tecnologías para el diagnóstico) Virología
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85121256912
Source
International Journal of Management and Decision Making
ISSN of the container
14624621
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus