Title
Systems capacity expansion planning: Novel approach for environmental and energy policy change analysis
Date Issued
01 November 2016
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Marques G.F.
Bulhões Mendes C.A.
Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas
Publisher(s)
Elsevier Ltd
Abstract
Planning for power systems generation expansion follows environmental policies incorporating technologies based on renewables to reduce CO2 emissions. These policies are susceptible to unpredictable changes, given dynamic economic and political contexts. This paper analyzes the impact of changes in energy policies, motivated by different environmental objectives. The analysis is done through a novel approach coupling Dynamic Programming and Multi-objective programming to generate several energy policy scenarios and their trade-offs, representing plausible policy changes in the different stages of the planning horizon. The results indicate a clear Pareto front and that energy policy scenarios with abrupt changes should be avoided in favor of scenarios with gradual changes. “Greener” energy policies in a given planning stage are not necessarily the best ones considering the full planning horizon, considering the unfolding impacts of current decisions into the future. The approach is useful in improving planners' future vision from myopic into a perspicacious one.
Start page
70
End page
79
Volume
85
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ingeniería mecánica Ingeniería ambiental
Publication version
Version of Record
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84983568845
Source
Environmental Modelling and Software
ISSN of the container
1364-8152
Sponsor(s)
The authors are grateful for the financial support provided by the Brazilian National Counsel of Technological and Scientific Development – CNPq (grant number: 141197/2013-7 ) through the postgraduate scholarship program.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus