Title
Empirical modeling of high-income and emerging stock and Forex market return volatility using Markov-switching GARCH models
Date Issued
01 April 2020
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Ataurima Arellano M.
Publisher(s)
Elsevier Inc.
Abstract
Using weekly data for stock and Forex market returns, a set of MS-GARCH models is estimated for a group of high-income (HI) countries and emerging market economies (EMEs) using algorithms proposed by Augustyniak (2014) and Ardia et al. (2018, 2019a,b), allowing for a variety of conditional variance and distribution specifications. The main results are: (i) the models selected using Ardia et al. (2018) have a better fit than those estimated by Augustyniak (2014), contain skewed distributions, and often require that the main coefficients be different in each regime; (ii) in Latam Forex markets, estimates of the heavy-tail parameter are smaller than in HI Forex and all stock markets; (iii) the persistence of the high-volatility regime is considerable and more evident in stock markets (especially in Latam EMEs); (iv) in (HI and Latam) stock markets, a single-regime GJR model (leverage effects) with skewed distributions is selected; but when using MS models, virtually no MS-GJR models are selected. However, this does not happen in Forex markets, where leverage effects are not found either in single-regime or MS-GARCH models.
Volume
52
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Economía
Econometría
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85079388254
Source
North American Journal of Economics and Finance
ISSN of the container
10629408
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus