Title
A new method for sequential learning of states and parameters for state-space models: the particle swarm learning optimization
Date Issued
23 July 2020
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Guzman I.R.E.
Universidad de São Paulo
Publisher(s)
Taylor and Francis Ltd.
Abstract
Accuracy of parameter estimation and efficiency of state simulation are common concerns in the implementation of state-space models. Even widely used methods such as Kalman filters with MCMC and Particle Filter, still present concerns with efficiency and accuracy, despite their successful results in their respective applications.This article presents a new method combining the structure of particle learning and bare bones particle swarm optimization (BBPSO) to the process of smoothing and filtering the states in the state-space models, thus overcoming the efficiency and accuracy problems. Sampling importance re-sampling is used to estimate the states of the model, then the parameters can be estimated via BBPSO, as an alternative to the kernel approximation of Liu and West. Our method is applied to stochastic volatility and AR(1) state-space models. Empirical results with Ibovespa and SP500 index show better performance when compared to particle filters, thus improving efficiency and accuracy.
Start page
2057
End page
2079
Volume
90
Issue
11
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Estadísticas, Probabilidad
Matemáticas aplicadas
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85084991749
Source
Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation
ISSN of the container
00949655
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus