Title
Inferring inflation expectations from fixed-event forecasts
Date Issued
01 January 2017
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
European Central Bank
Abstract
Often, expected inflation measured by surveys is available only as fixed-event forecasts. Even though these surveys do contain information of a complete term structure of expectations, direct inferences about them are troublesome. Records of fixed-event forecasts through time are associated with timevarying forecast horizons, and there is no straightforward way to interpolate such figures. This paper proposes an adaptation of the measurement model of Kozicki and Tinsley (2012) to suit the intricacies of fixed-event data. Using the Latin American Consensus Forecasts, the model is estimated to study the behavior of inflation expectations in four inflation targeters (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru). For these countries, the results suggest that the announcement of credible inflation targets has been instrumental in anchoring long-run expectations.
Start page
1
End page
31
Volume
13
Issue
2
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Economía Negocios, Administración
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85020083277
Source
International Journal of Central Banking
ISSN of the container
18154654
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus