We derive various probabilistic expressions about the capabilities of certain social groups to complete a scientific article with prospective indexation in the database Scopus. Guided by the latest Scimago ranking, we carried out estimations about the produced scientific papers by taking into account different factors that might be crucial for a optimal production of papers. We illustrate the case of Peru where the proposed model is applied resulting in that 1 of 10 trained professionals might be erroneously accounted in the Scimago ranking of the total number of published Scopus documents.