Title
Testing stationarity of the detrended price return in stock markets
Date Issued
01 February 2022
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
The University of Sydney
Publisher(s)
Elsevier B.V.
Abstract
This paper proposes a generalized porous media equation with drift as the governing equation for stock market indexes. The proposed governing equation can be expressed as a Fokker–Planck equation (FPE) with a non-constant diffusion coefficient. The governing equation accounts for non-stationary effects and describes the time evolution of the probability distribution function (PDF) of the price return. By applying Ito's Lemma, the FPE is associated with a stochastic differential equation (SDE) that models the time evolution of the price return in a fashion different from the classical Black–Scholes equation. Both FPE and SDE equations account for a deterministic part or trend and a stochastic part or q-Gaussian noise. The q-Gaussian noise can be decomposed into a Gaussian noise affected by a standard deviation or volatility. The presented model is validated using the S&P500 index's data from the past 25 years per minute. We show that the price return becomes Gaussian, consequently stationary by normalizing the detrended data set. The normalization of the data is calculated by subtracting the trend and then dividing by the standard deviation of the detrended price return. The stationarity test consists of representing the power spectrum in terms of the time series's autocorrelation. Additionally, this paper presents the multifractal analysis for the detrended and normalized price return to describe the Hurst exponent dynamics over the dataset.
Volume
587
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Física y Astronomía
Estadísticas, Probabilidad
Subjects
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85117368124
Source
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
ISSN of the container
03784371
Sponsor(s)
We acknowledge Australian Research Council grant DP170102927 . K.A.C. thanks The Sydney Informatics Hub at The University of Sydney, Australia for providing access to HPC-Artemis for financial data processing. We thank Sornette, Tsallis and Christian Beck for inspiring discussions.
We acknowledge Australian Research Council grant DP170102927. K.A.C. thanks The Sydney Informatics Hub at The University of Sydney, Australia for providing access to HPC-Artemis for financial data processing. We thank Sornette, Tsallis and Christian Beck for inspiring discussions.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus