Title
Probabilistic Model for Regional Multiseverity Casualty Estimation due to Building Damage Following an Earthquake
Date Issued
01 September 2018
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Dept. of Civil Engineering, Stanford Univ
Publisher(s)
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Abstract
This paper introduces a probabilistic formulation for the estimation of the spatial distribution of multiseverity casualties due to earthquakes. The formulation assesses the number, severity, and distribution of injuries in the affected region. The model is an essential component of resilience formulations of health care systems in a community because it represents the demand on the system. Moreover, the model extends the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework from single-building analysis to multiple-building analysis. The paper gives a full description of both the underlying statistical interdependencies among the model's variables and the extension of the formulation of the PBEE integral to a regional context with multiple buildings. Thus, the formulation advances current methodologies that focus only on single casualty types (e.g., Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response [PAGER]) or on the mean number of casualties (e.g., Hazus) rather than their joint probability distribution. Two numerical algorithms are presented in this paper to solve for the casualty model: one based on traditional forward Monte Carlo and another based on the central limit theorem (CLT). It is shown that the latter model is highly computationally efficient while providing accurate results.
Volume
4
Issue
3
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ingeniería, Tecnología
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85046888172
Source
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
ISSN of the container
23767642
Sponsor(s)
This research was partially supported by NSF EAGER Grant CMMI-1645335 and the Shah Family Fellowship through the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. The authors are grateful for their generous support.
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus