Title
U.S. civil air show crashes, 1993 to 2013 burden, fatal risk factors, and evaluation of a risk index for aviation crashes
Date Issued
01 January 2015
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Publisher(s)
National Research Council
Abstract
This study provides new public health data about U.S. civil air shows. Risk factors for fatalities in civil air show crashes were analyzed. The value of the FIA score in predicting fatal outcomes was evaluated. With the use of the FAA's General Aviation and Air Taxi Survey and the National Transportation Safety Board's data, the incidence of civil air show crashes from 1993 to 2013 was calculated. Fatality risk factors for crashes were analyzed by means of regression methods. The FIA index was validated to predict fatal outcomes by using the factors of fire, instrument conditions, and away-from-airport location, and was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The civil air show crash rate was 31 crashes per 1,000 civil air events. Of the 174 civil air show crashes that occurred during the study period, 91 (52%) involved at least one fatality; on average, 1.1 people died per fatal crash. Fatalities were associated with four major risk factors: fire [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 5 7.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5 2.4 to 20.6, P < .001], pilot error (AOR 5 5.2, 95% CI 5 1.8 to 14.5, P 5 .002), aerobatic flight (AOR 5 3.6, 95% CI 5 1.6 to 8.2, P 5 .002), and offairport location (AOR 5 3.4, 95% CI 5 1.5 to 7.5, P 5 .003). The area under the FIA score's ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI 5 0.64 to 0.78). Civil air show crashes were marked by a high risk of fatal outcomes to pilots in aerobatic performances but rare mass casualties. The FIA score was not a valid measurement of fatal risk in civil air show crashes.
Start page
1
End page
9
Volume
2471
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Políticas de salud, Servicios de salud Salud pública, Salud ambiental
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84975704391
Source
Transportation Research Record
ISSN of the container
03611981
Sponsor(s)
The authors thank Susan P. Baker, Patricia F. Coogan, John W. Fischer, and Richard S. Golaszewski of TRB's Graduate Research Award Program mentorship team for their guidance and critical review of the manuscript. The authors also thank Carol D. J. Floyd for support in data acquisition and Leland P. Beaty for serving as one of the two crash report reviewers during the initial screening of crashes for inclusion in the study. During part of the research period, the first author was supported by a grant from the Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health to the UJMT Fogarty Global Health Fellows Program Consortium, composed of the University of North Carolina, Johns Hopkins University, Morehouse School of Medicine, and Tulane University.
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus