Title
An application of a random level shifts model to the volatility of Peruvian stock and exchange rate returns
Date Issued
02 January 2016
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
Routledge
Abstract
The literature has shown that the volatility of stock and forex rate market returns shows the characteristic of long memory. Another fact that is shown in the literature is that this feature may be spurious and volatility actually consists of a short memory process contaminated with random level shifts (RLS). In this paper, we follow recent econometric approaches estimating an RLS model to the logarithm of the absolute value of stock and forex returns. The model consists of the sum of a short-term memory component and a component of level shifts. The second component is specified as the cumulative sum of a process that is zero with probability ‘1-alpha’ and is a random variable with probability ‘alpha’. The results show that there are level shifts that are rare, but once they are taken into account, the characteristic or property of long memory disappears. Also, the presence of General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) effects is eliminated when included or deducted level shifts. An exercise of out-of-sample forecasting shows that the RLS model has better performance than traditional models for modelling long memory such as the models ARFIMA (p,d,q).
Start page
34
End page
55
Volume
9
Issue
1
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Econometría Economía
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-84955722973
Source
Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies
ISSN of the container
17520843
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus