Title
Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM<inf>2·5</inf> pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations
Date Issued
01 September 2021
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Author(s)
Chen G.
Guo Y.
Yue X.
Tong S.
Gasparrini A.
Bell M.L.
Armstrong B.
Schwartz J.
Jaakkola J.J.K.
Zanobetti A.
Lavigne E.
Nascimento Saldiva P.H.
Kan H.
Royé D.
Milojevic A.
Overcenco A.
Urban A.
Schneider A.
Entezari A.
Vicedo-Cabrera A.M.
Zeka A.
Tobias A.
Nunes B.
Alahmad B.
Forsberg B.
Pan S.C.
Íñiguez C.
Ameling C.
De la Cruz Valencia C.
Åström C.
Houthuijs D.
Van Dung D.
Samoli E.
Mayvaneh F.
Sera F.
Lei Y.
Orru H.
Kim H.
Holobaca I.H.
Kyselý J.
Teixeira J.P.
Madureira J.
Katsouyanni K.
Hurtado-Díaz M.
Maasikmets M.
Ragettli M.S.
Hashizume M.
Stafoggia M.
Pascal M.
Scortichini M.
de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho M.
Valdés Ortega N.
Ryti N.R.I.
Scovronick N.
Matus P.
Goodman P.
Garland R.M.
Abrutzky R.
Garcia S.O.
Rao S.
Fratianni S.
Dang T.N.
Colistro V.
Huber V.
Lee W.
Seposo X.
Honda Y.
Guo Y.L.
Ye T.
Yu W.
Abramson M.J.
Samet J.M.
Li S.
Publisher(s)
Elsevier B.V.
Abstract
Background: Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world. Methods: For this time series study, data on daily counts of deaths for all causes, cardiovascular causes, and respiratory causes were collected from 749 cities in 43 countries and regions during 2000–16. Daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2·5 were estimated using the three-dimensional chemical transport model GEOS-Chem at a 0·25° × 0·25° resolution. The association between wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure and mortality was examined using a quasi-Poisson time series model in each city considering both the current-day and lag effects, and the effect estimates were then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Based on these pooled effect estimates, the population attributable fraction and relative risk (RR) of annual mortality due to acute wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure was calculated. Findings: 65·6 million all-cause deaths, 15·1 million cardiovascular deaths, and 6·8 million respiratory deaths were included in our analyses. The pooled RRs of mortality associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in the 3-day moving average (lag 0–2 days) of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure were 1·019 (95% CI 1·016–1·022) for all-cause mortality, 1·017 (1·012–1·021) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1·019 (1·013–1·025) for respiratory mortality. Overall, 0·62% (95% CI 0·48–0·75) of all-cause deaths, 0·55% (0·43–0·67) of cardiovascular deaths, and 0·64% (0·50–0·78) of respiratory deaths were annually attributable to the acute impacts of wildfire-related PM2·5 exposure during the study period. Interpretation: Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
Start page
e579
End page
e587
Volume
5
Issue
9
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Ciencias del medio ambiente
Forestal
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85117543568
PubMed ID
Source
The Lancet Planetary Health
ISSN of the container
25425196
Sponsor(s)
This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP2000581). YG was supported by a Career Development Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1163693). SL was supported by an Early Career Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1109193). GC was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81903279). AU and JK were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (20-28560S). VH received support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (PCIN-2017-046). XY was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2019YFA0606802). SR acknowledges funding from EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (820655). S-CP and YLG were supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan (MOST 109-2621-M-002-021). AG was supported by the Medical Research Council UK (MR/M022625/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (NE/R009384/1), and the EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (820655); JM was supported by a fellowship of the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (SFRH/ BPD/115112/2016). ST was supported by the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (18411951600). NS was supported by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776).
Sources of information:
Directorio de Producción Científica
Scopus