Title
Influence of the coupling south Atlantic convergence zone-el niño-southern oscillation (SACZ-ENSO) on the projected precipitation changes over the central andes
Date Issued
01 January 2021
Access level
open access
Resource Type
journal article
Publisher(s)
MDPI AG
Abstract
There are no studies related to the influence of the coupling between the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern variability on future changes in the austral summer (December-February, DJF) precipitation over the central Andes. Therefore, we evaluated the historical simulations (1980–2005) and projections (2070–2099) for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario of 25 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, we also consider the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) projections nested in three CMIP5 GCMs (GFDLESM2M, MPI-ESM-MR, and HadGEM2-ES) under RCP 8.5. We separate the CMIP5 GCMs according to their abilities to simulate the nonlinear characteristics of ENSO and the SACZ for the historical period. We found that only three out of 25 CMIP5 GCMs (hereafter group A) simulate the nonlinear characteristics of ENSO and the SACZ during the historical period. Although most CMIP5 GCM project DJF precipitation decreases over the central Andes, group A project precipitation increases related to the projected increase in deep convection over the central Peruvian Amazon. On the regional scale, only RegGFDL (nested in a group A CMIP5 GCM) projects a statistically significant increase in DJF precipitation (~5-15%) over the northern central Andes and the central Peruvian Amazon. Conversely, all RegCM4 simulations project a decrease in DJF precipitation (~-10%) over the southern central Andes.
Volume
9
Issue
5
Language
English
OCDE Knowledge area
Meteorología y ciencias atmosféricas
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-85105722601
Source
Climate
ISSN of the container
22251154
Sponsor(s)
National Science Foundation (NSF)–U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)–NCAR, United States
Sources of information: Directorio de Producción Científica Scopus